Andy Marlin/NHLI via Getty ImagesErik Karlsson should win the Norris trophy hands down this season beating out his closest rivals Zdeno Chara of the Boston Bruins and Shea Weber of the Nashville Predators. Not the typical size for a defenseman; Karlsson is 6’0″ 180 pounds, he is small when you compare him to Chara’s 6’9″ 255 pound frame and Weber’s 6’4″ 232 size. In fact, it’s easy for voters to look at Karlsson as being too small and not the prototypical big size that’s needed to win the Norris Trophy. Add to that the fact that both Chara and Weber blasted slap shots over 100mph during the skills competition, wooing the crowd and its easy to see how voters can be tricked into over looking Karlsson, however they would be wrong.
The James Norris Trophy is awarded to the National Hockey League’s top ”defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position”.
Erik Karlsson has been by far the best offensive defenseman in the NHL. On the season Karlsson has 19 goals and 59 assists for 78 points in 81 games. Offensively, there is no comparison to Karlsson. Karlsson is like a man playing with boys. He’s a full 25 points ahead of both Brian Campbell of the Florida Panthers and Dustin Byfuglien of the Winnipeg Jets. To compare this to recent years, not since the 1988-1999 season when Paul Coffey of the Edmonton Oilers won the scoring race, has a defenseman dominated the scoring race by more than 25 points.
If you want to compare it to recent years, over the last 10 years only Nicklas Lidstrom has amassed more points as a defenseman than Karlsson did this season and Lidstrom won the Norris Trophy that year, 2005-06 hands down.
The question then becomes, “Can a defenseman who dominates the scoring race without the defensive game still win the Norris Trophy”? Let’s take a look and compare the stats.
Most hockey experts agree that it’s come down to a race between the Boston Bruins Zdeno Chara, the Nashville Predators Shea Weber and Karlsson. Offensively Karlsson finished 26 points a head of Chara and 29 points a head of Weber. So offensively there is no comparison.
Defensively, the most telling stat that can be used is a player’s plus/minus rating. However, we need to take a closer look at this stat and also take a look at the average ice time a player has. Player’s who play top minutes are normally matched up against the opponent’s best player’s which can hurt their rating. Also, we need to take a look at the players surrounding that player to see if his rating is inflated because he plays with a more defensive minded team or players.
Only 11 defencemen in the NHL averaged over 25 minutes in a game. A close examination of these 11 shows that Erik Karlsson is third in the NHL in plus/minus rating with a +16 which is behind only Zdeno Chara (+33) and Shea Weber (+21), his closest competitors for the Norris Trophy.
A closer look at the plus/minus leaders in the NHL shows us that the Boston Bruins have the top five plus/minus leaders in the NHL and 6 of the top 10. Chara’s numbers then are partially the product of the team that he plays on. In fact, the Bruins have the largest goal differential in the NHL with a +67 when comparing goals for and goals against. Of course Chara is a huge contributor to those stats, however his plus/minus stats are a bi-product of the team that he plays on.
Now if you compare this to the Senators, Ottawa was a +9 on the season, making Karlsson’s +16 a staggering total. Also, both Ottawa and Nashville have only one player in the top 30 in plus/minus. The Predators collectively are a +27 on the season.
Karlsson is the only one of the three defencemen to have a plus/minus better than the collective total of his team. Statistically, Ottawa is the worst defensive team to make the playoffs this season. Put Karlsson on a defensive minded team like Boston and who knows how high his plus/minus could be.
If you want to take a look at the intangibles, the Senators were chosen to finish 15th in the conference and dead last in the NHL. Instead they are the NHL’s surprise team, making the playoffs as the number 8 seed. Where would the Senators be without Karlsson, no one can tell? But I bet the Bruins without Chara and the Predators without Weber would still be a playoff team.
Erik Karlsson is the true Norris Trophy winner. Not only is he statistically miles ahead of both Chara and Weber offensively, but defensively his plus/minus rating is excellent considering how poorly his team has been in the defensive end.
while it’s true that Karlsson’s +/- stat is high for the team he is on, it’s worth noting that he also played almost no time when the Senators were short handed, nor did he spend a whole lot of time playing against opposing teams top two lines. Both of those inflate his +/- stat, since he simply wasn’t on the ice for a lot of opposing scoring opportunities. Chara and Weber are both called on to play a little more on a night nightly, and nearly all of that playing time is against top lines and in short-handed situations, which makes their +/- ratings substantially more meaningful and impressive. Yes, the both play on more defensively gifted teams, but thats because good defensive players make the players they play with better. Karlsson is great player and an impressive offensive tool, but he still has a ton to learn defensively. If the Norris Trophy is awarded to the best all-around defenseman, he simply is not at that level yet.
Hi Doug,
Thanks for your comments. We here at fightingforstanley.ca welcome comments from our loyal fans. One thing I do want to tell you is that and goals scored for or against a team during a short handed situation or powerplay are not included in a player’s plus/minus rating. The plus/minus rating only counts against a player when the two teams are at even strength with one another. So if a team is shorthanded and they give up a goal, the players on the ice do not get a plus if their team scores, or a minus if they are scored against.
As for playing against the oppositions top two lines, I can tell that following the Senators all season like I have, Karlsson does in fact play against the oppositions top two lines. In fact, Karlsson not only led all Senators defencemen in minutes played during the season, he also played more average minutes a game than Zdeno Chara (25:19 to 25:00). Most NHL defensemen don’t play over 25 minutes in a game. In fact only 11 defensemen averaged more than 25 minutes. It would be hard for a defenseman to log over 25 minutes in a game on a nightly basis and not play against the top two lines. In fact all 11 of them were matched against the oppositions best on a nightly basis.
He had a break out year. The Professional Hockey Writers Association will chatter among themselves and decide he won’t be getting the votes. Some writers have already publicly written about their leanings.
He had a hella season. Wish he was on my team. My honest opinion is it will be hard to take Chara from his throne.
Votes wise and in an actual battle of the Norris Trophy candidates.
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My Editor thinks #Sens Karlsson is Norris guy http://t.co/njUC48Rv #Leafs fan go tell him he is wrong and Erik won’t get the votes!!
No response from the Leafs fans. I guess that means that I am correct in my assessment.
Talking about Norris Trophy worthy defensemen, and no mention of Alex Pietrangelo?
can my #Leafs followers PLEASE go tell my editor he is full %$% #Sens suck Erik ain’t gettin Norris http://t.co/njUC48Rv NOT ENOUGH VOTES
Ya, so…..um. there no way that dis kid is the norris winner. He aint no Bobby Orr folks